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Best approach for univariate time series predictions?

Data Science Asked on July 25, 2021

I have a univariate time series. where I’m trying to predict a current value of a variable based on the previous 10 values of the same variable. I tried three approaches:
1- linear regression where I use the previous 10 values as features.
2- ARIMA model
3- deep learning (LSTM) model

I computed the RMSE between the predicted and expected current values. To my surprise, the linear regression model is performing slightly better.

RMSE linear regression = 27.73
RMSE Arima= 29
RMSE LSTM= 28.7

I know that this could be a vague question, please let me know if you need any further information such as code snippets or plots.

My questions is: Is this expected ? I would have thought that LSTM would be the most powerful approach. Is it possible for a simple linear regression model to outperform an LSTM?
Do you have any advice on how to improve the performance of LSTM ?

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