TransWikia.com

How to estimate "necessary" economic output using Leontief input-output impact analysis? In particular: how to handle imports

Economics Asked by thecpaptain on December 3, 2020

I’m trying to estimate what the "necessary" economic output of a society is using Leontief input-output impact analysis. The data I have available is OECD input-output tables (see link). I’m not a trained economist, so please correct any mistakes you see in my thinking.

My idea for how to make this estimation is the following: proceed with a standard impact analysis and get the Leontief matrix L. Then check how much economic output x_need that remains if we let the consumers spend only a "living-wage budget" proportionally to the different sectors of the economy (so if 50% of spending in the original demand goes to say food, then 50% of the living-wage final demand should also go to food). So basically: calculate x_need by f_need, where f_need is the new final demand vector that has been altered by letting private consumers only spend their living-wage-budget. Then we can compare x_old and x_need to see the differences in economic output.

I hope that this so far is not controversial.

Now here’s the question: how do I handle imports (and exports) in the construction of f_need?

I want f_need to represent the final demand of the domestic private consumers when spend precisely their living-wage-budget. Exports can probably simply be removed since they don’t provide goods and services to the domestic population. But what about imports? How do I best deal with them in my estimation? I see two general strategies for how to do so:

  1. Ignore imports. Alter private domestic consumer according to their living-wage-budget, remove exports, and ignore imports (i.e. don’t make any changes in how imports affect final demand f_need). This gives us f_need, which we can use to create x_need for comparison with the original economic output x_old.
  2. Assume that all imports are domestically produced. Create and compare x_need to the economic output x_own_produce the country would have if all imports were produced domestically. Get x_own_produce from a final demand vector f_own_produce that we get by assuming that all imports are domestically produced. Get f_need by removing exports and assuming that domestic consumers only spend according to their living-wage-budget. We can then get x_need from f_need, and finally compare x_need with x_own_produce.

I hope that the above is understandable. Let me know what I need to clarify otherwise.

Detailed questions:
Which of the two general strategies gives a better estimation? Are there better strategies that I can use to make my estimation?

Any (constructive) feedback is appreciated.

One Answer

If you want to model exports and imports you need interregional (or multiregional) Leontief input–output model instead of standard one.

The way how these models work is that you will have separate foreign sector in your input output model, along what you can see in the table below (taken from Hewings, G. J., & Jensen, R. C., 1987):

enter image description here

This is in spirit similar to assuming that foreign are just some other production sector - but the issue is that spending and productivity might not necessary be the same as at home. There is also more nuance to it. I would recommend going over the above mentioned Hewings, & Jensen (1987) which has all the details on how input-output analysis is different for open economy.

Correct answer by 1muflon1 on December 3, 2020

Add your own answers!

Ask a Question

Get help from others!

© 2024 TransWikia.com. All rights reserved. Sites we Love: PCI Database, UKBizDB, Menu Kuliner, Sharing RPP