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Are turnout figures available at the German consulate level for the 2017 Turkish Referendum?

Politics Asked on December 10, 2021

Among the approximately 3.5 million people with Turkish background living in Germany, about 1.43 million were eligible to cast a vote in the 2017 referendum on the presidential system. Among these, voter turnout was about 50%. Votes were cast in consulates or the embassy.

Overall, evet (yes) won the German-Turkish vote with 63%, with marked local differences. According to the Rheinische Post, in Berlin, evet and hyir (no!) were even (50-50), while evet had a far bigger lead in Essen (75%) or Düsseldorf (70%).

My question is if this discrepancy between different cities in preferences was accompanied by differences in voter turnout. Is there a breakdown of voter turnout by consulate?

One Answer

Yes - this is available directly from the Turkish Supreme Electoral Council here.

The data for German consulates in particular have been analysed further in Germany's Turkish Voters - What Do We Know? by Thomas Krumm from the Turkish-German University, in which he provides this chart:

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He also calculates the Spearman's rank correlation coefficient between turnout & 'Yes' vote at the consulate level, finding a positive correlation (0.654, sig. 0.015). This supports your hypothesis that the discrepancies in 'Yes' vote between consulates were accompanied with differences in turnout; generally speaking, the higher the percentage turnout, the higher the percentage of 'Yes' votes.

Answered by CDJB on December 10, 2021

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