Politics Asked on December 10, 2021
Among the approximately 3.5 million people with Turkish background living in Germany, about 1.43 million were eligible to cast a vote in the 2017 referendum on the presidential system. Among these, voter turnout was about 50%. Votes were cast in consulates or the embassy.
Overall, evet (yes) won the German-Turkish vote with 63%, with marked local differences. According to the Rheinische Post, in Berlin, evet and hyir (no!) were even (50-50), while evet had a far bigger lead in Essen (75%) or Düsseldorf (70%).
My question is if this discrepancy between different cities in preferences was accompanied by differences in voter turnout. Is there a breakdown of voter turnout by consulate?
Yes - this is available directly from the Turkish Supreme Electoral Council here.
The data for German consulates in particular have been analysed further in Germany's Turkish Voters - What Do We Know? by Thomas Krumm from the Turkish-German University, in which he provides this chart:
He also calculates the Spearman's rank correlation coefficient between turnout & 'Yes' vote at the consulate level, finding a positive correlation (0.654, sig. 0.015). This supports your hypothesis that the discrepancies in 'Yes' vote between consulates were accompanied with differences in turnout; generally speaking, the higher the percentage turnout, the higher the percentage of 'Yes' votes.
Answered by CDJB on December 10, 2021
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