Betting value, with our without bookmaker margin

Sports Asked on October 21, 2021

I am trying to find the value of a bet, with my percentage, that some team will win to see if i think there is value in some bet.
My question is, should i include the bookmakers margin, when i calculate the value of a bet, based on my percentage that some team will win?

I would think that i need to add the bookmakers margin to my percentage, to even out the margin they add to their odds — is this wrong? Should i just go with my percentage and not add the bookmaker margin?

One Answer

Fundamentally, you don't care what the bookie's margin is. If for a bet of X, your expected payout is 1.70X and the chance of winning is 0.60, then your expected payout is (0.60 * 1.70)X = 1.02X and you're in the money. Assuming your estimate of 0.60 is correct of course...

The only disclaimer here is to ensure that your payout is actually 1.70X; if you're in a jurisdiction which taxes betting in some way, be very careful as to whether the quoted odds are net of tax.

Answered by Philip Kendall on October 21, 2021

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